A group of Republican donors gathered in a private room at the St. Regis Aspen for dinner to hear Nikki Haley deliver a speech.
The Republican Governors Association, which was holding its usually low-key summer meeting at the exclusive Rocky Mountain resort, had invited the former South Carolina governor. It would be an ideal venue for Haley to court 27 red-state governors as she prepares for a presidential run in the future.
When Haley took the stage, however, attendees noticed that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was noticeably absent. According to one attendee, DeSantis was holding his own fundraiser in Basalt, Colorado, 20 miles up the road.
“Ron was pissed he didn’t get asked to speak,” an attendee later recalled.
Hold your hats. The 2024 Republican presidential race has officially begun.
Prospective candidates often compete fiercely for donor dollars and Fox News airtime at this early stage. However, the 2024 competition is unfolding like no other in recent memory.
This is due to the fact that the race is either completely open or over before it begins. The outcome is determined by Trump’s whims, grievances, and obsessions.
Despite two impeachments, the horrors of the January 6 Capitol riot, and nearly 350,000 U.S. COVID-19 deaths, the 45th president retains a psychic grip on the MAGA-fied Republican base more than six months after leaving office. Trump received 70% of the vote in a straw poll conducted by the Conservative Political Action Committee in July. DeSantis came in a distant second, with 21 percent.
“It’s a metaphysical impossibility that anybody, even a senator named Jesus H. Christ, could beat Trump in a Republican primary if he runs,” said a veteran of Trump’s 2016 campaign who briefly served as spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, Michael Caputo.
The candidates are aware of this. In April, Haley, Trump’s U.N. ambassador, told The Associated Press that she would not run if Trump did. Others, including DeSantis, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, have told reporters that they are only concerned with the midterm elections.
However, just because candidates aren’t openly challenging Trump doesn’t mean they aren’t testing the waters in case Trump doesn’t jump in.
“If Trump doesn’t run, you’re going to have 2016 on steroids. There will be 25 to 30 people running for president,” a prominent Republican predicted.
Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, and even congresswoman conspiracist Marjorie Taylor Greene could be on the list.
Anything is possible.
Given Trump’s history of making will-he-or-won’t-he speculation into a media circus, there’s little chance he’ll declare his intentions for 2024 until after the midterm elections, at the earliest.
“I think that people will be very happy with my decision,” Trump stated when speaking to Vanity Fair’s Gabriel Sherman in mid-August. He was on the phone from his Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club, and he was in a good mood.
“I think MAGA is stronger than it’s ever been before,” he said. Trump particularly gloated over New York governor Andrew Cuomo’s resignation, announced two days before. “I thought he was a tough guy. Maybe he wasn’t,” Trump said.
Trump, on the other hand, appeared to enjoy watching his potential 2024 opponents try to predict his next move. A Trump confidant told me, “Knowing Trump, he’ll dangle it right up to the New Hampshire primary filing deadline.” As a result, candidates are stuck waiting for Trump to enter or exit while pretending not to be campaigning and going after each other.
“It’s a holding pattern,” a frustrated Haley adviser said. “It’s unlike any previous race.”
The Republican National Committee famously commissioned a “autopsy” to diagnose the party’s voter problems after Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama in 2012. The internal investigation resulted in a 100-page report advising candidates to broaden the party’s appeal to include Hispanics, African-Americans, and women.
That blueprint was blown up three years later when Trump descended his golden escalator and called Mexican immigrants “rapists.”
“The Republican Party became a cult of personality,” said Sally Bradshaw, a former Jeb Bush adviser who coauthored the 2012 RNC autopsy.
Following Trump’s loss to Joe Biden, Republicans didn’t even bother with a self-evaluation.
“The reason there wasn’t an audit this time is the people left in the party don’t care about solving problems,” Bradshaw said.
The party’s main takeaway from 2020 is that its supporters want it to become more Trumpian. According to a May Reuters/Ipsos poll, 61 percent of Republicans believe Trump’s big lie that Biden stole the election. According to a Politico poll released in June, three out of ten Republicans believe Trump will be “reinstated” as president.
If it were up to Roger Stone, Michael Flynn would be the party’s nominee in 2024, despite the fact that Stone admits it is highly unlikely. (Trump pardoned both Stone and Flynn for felony convictions related to the Mueller investigation.) Stone is most impressed with DeSantis among the other potential candidates.
The 43-year-old former congressman has skillfully positioned himself as a mini-Trump since being elected governor of Florida in 2018. During the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, he defied public health guidelines and kept Florida from going into lockdown in 2020.
In May, he signed a bill restricting voting rights in front of a live audience on Fox News. DeSantis also dispatched Florida law enforcement officers to Texas in June to “secure [the] southern border.” According to a recent conservative poll, DeSantis has a 74 percent approval rating, which is higher than Trump’s. (Trump received 71 percent of the vote.)
One of Trump’s former advisers recently texted me a photo of DeSantis merch, which included a hat with the slogan “DeSantis 2024: Make America Florida.”
DeSantis has also amassed a sizable fundraising operation. According to the Miami Herald, his political action committee raised nearly $14 million in April, bringing the total amount raised to around $31.6 million. Ken Griffin, the billionaire hedge fund manager, made a $5 million donation. “DeSantis is the most valuable player this year. He’s Trump without the negatives,” said Scott Reed, the former chief strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Despite the fact that DeSantis appears to be the front-runner right now, a lot can happen between now and the New Hampshire primary. For one thing, DeSantis’ ostensible success in managing COVID is being shattered by the out-of-control delta variant in Florida. In addition, DeSantis must win reelection in 2022. (a recent poll showed him losing to Republican turned Democrat Charlie Crist).
Former staffers told me that if DeSantis wins, his abrasive personality could become a liability under the pressures of a national campaign. DeSantis is known for only trusting his former newscaster wife, Casey, and his staff has seen a lot of turnover. “He doesn’t have any relationships. “He has zero relationships. He just doesn’t speak to you,” one former staffer stated. Former DeSantis staffers formed a “support group” to commiserate over their experiences working for him, Politico reported in May.
Desantis has another problem. “Trump fucking hates DeSantis. He just resents his popularity,” a second Trump confidant stated. Trump is irritated by DeSantis because he believes DeSantis does not give Trump enough credit for his success.
According to a source, Pompeo’s advisers have been promoting DeSantis in order to stoke Trump’s enmity.
Chris Christie is also making noises about a 2024 run in the establishment lane. “I’m not going to defer to anyone if I decide that it’s what I want to do, and that I think I’m the best option for the party and for the country,” he told a podcast in May.
“I don’t mind,” Trump said when I asked if he was concerned about a primary challenge. “I was challenged the last time too, by people that were, you know, I never thought they were effective.” Trump added that his rivals owe him. “You know, many of these people I was responsible for their success to a large extent.”
Some of Trump’s longtime confidants have reiterated Trump’s narcissism, as they claim he wouldn’t be able to tolerate a Republican president other than himself. “He’s got zero interest in having any heir. It’s always been about him,” a confidant said.
As I said before, hang on to your hat.
