The presidential election is less than a month away, and all eyes are on the polls to see who is winning where, and what issues might be better for the candidates to push themselves as being the best to lead on.
Unfortunately for President Donald Trump, the numbers don’t show him much in terms of ways for him to win a second term to office.
A Pew Research poll published this week finds that, if the presidential election were being held today, Trump, the Republican candidate, would lose to Democratic Party challenger Joe Biden, by a margin of 52 percent to Trump’s 42 percent.
Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian candidate, would pick up 4 percent of the vote, while Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins would land just 1 percent.
That same Pew Research poll finds that Trump is trailing behind Biden on a number of key issues.
Voters were asked to answer, yes or no, on whether they could be confident that Biden or Trump, as president, could do well on a number of issues.
In all but one of those categories, Biden gets better grades from the American people — and on the one issue Trump does outpace him on, Biden still does fairly well in the eyes of registered voters.
The former vice president gets positive marks from more than half of respondents in the poll on whether he’d be good on foreign policy (54 percent saying yes), handling the coronavirus pandemic (57 percent), nominating future Supreme Court justices (55 percent), and on generally being able to bring the country together after the election (50 percent).
Conversely, Trump is under 50 percent on all of those issues, with only 45 percent of those who were polled saying he’d be good at leading on foreign policy matters, 40 percent saying he could effectively manage the pandemic if he received a second term to do so, 49 percent saying they’re confident he could make good picks for the Supreme Court in the future, and a dismal 30 percent believing he could bridge divides in the U.S.
Both candidates are under 50 percent on how the public views their ability to lead on law enforcement and criminal justice reform issues, but Biden is doing better than Trump on that issue as well, with 49 percent of respondents giving him good marks on that topic, while 45 percent said the same of Trump.
On just one issue, Trump did better than Biden did in the poll, but not by very much. Fifty-two percent of Americans think Trump can lead well on economic policy, if he’s elected again.
Yet 51 percent think Biden, too, can lead well on that issue, meaning the two are essentially tied on economics, according to Pew Research.
The poll reflects, in many ways, how the campaign has gotten away from Trump in recent days and weeks, and how limited his options are with just 25 days left until Election Day.
A number of organizations that track the presidential race — including the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.com — say that as of right now it’s Biden’s race to lose. The fact that Biden is faring much better than Trump on the issues Pew Research polled on gives a strong indication why the Democratic candidate is in the lead.
An analysis from NPR suggests that Biden will win the race, when examined from an Electoral College point-of-view. A lot can change in 25 days, of course, and a lot of these observations were wrong in 2016, when Trump won the Electoral College against Hillary Clinton, despite her winning the popular vot
But according to NPR, Biden already has enough support in the states that matter to break the Electoral College threshold needed to become the next president.
Their analysis also finds a narrowing path for Trump to take in order to win. Wisconsin and Arizona, for example, have moved from “toss-up” states in NPR’s analysis to “lean Democratic.”
Iowa has also shifted, from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.” Trump won all three of those states in 2016.
The president’s campaign team appears to be mindful that a number of states that helped him win four years ago won’t do the same this time around, as they’re reportedly canceling spending in several Midwest states. While ads aren’t being completely removed from states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, the Trump campaign is scrapping millions of dollars in advertisements in those areas.