According to “The Perfect Scam” journalist Michelle Kosinski, a source within the campaign to reelect President Donald Trump showed her internal polling numbers.
These numbers detail how the campaign is viewing its chances to send Trump back to the White House for a second term.
Although polling organizations are saying Biden has a better chance than Trump at the moment of winning, Trump’s internal numbers say he’s going to win.
But their numbers have shown a shift in Electoral College votes from where the campaign thought it was prior to Monday.
“Trump’s internal polling had him winning with 290 electoral votes,” Kosinski tweeted the night before Election Day. “Now, late today, they’ve moved that down to 279.”
Jason Miller, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, disputed the map that Kosinski shared.
“Fake news. Not ours. We’ll win bigger,” he said.
“Yet it came from inside the campaign,” Kosinski later retorted. “Such mystery.”
Despite the back-and-forth between Miller and Kosinski, the map, if it did indeed originate from a Trump campaign source, reveals four states that are must-wins for the incumbent president.
The map shows that Trump believes he’s set to win in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, and Florida. Yet polling averages from RealClearPolitics (RCP) show that in three of those four states Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden are within a point of each other.
Biden leads Trump, on average, by 1.2 points in Pennsylvania. He’s also ahead of Trump in Arizona and Florida, according to RCP averages, by 0.9 points in both states. Trump has a narrow lead in North Carolina, ahead of Biden on average by 0.2 percent.
All of those numbers are within the margin of error for all polls conducted, which means they are technically statistical ties.
If Trump loses just one of those states, according to the internal polls map that Kosinski alleges is legitimate, he will cede enough Electoral College votes over to Biden for the Democratic candidate to win the race instead.
The RCP averages show that Trump is in hot water when it comes to winning reelection. Yet not all polls are created equally, and some are “older” than others, meaning that looking at the averages of all polling data may not hold the true story behind who is likely to win or not.
The data website FiveThirtyEight.com has crunched those calculations together, demonstrating that Trump has an even slimmer chance of winning those all-important states. According to them, Biden has higher odds to win all four states.
North Carolina has the highest chance of Trump beating Biden within those four states, but it’s still Biden’s race to lose, as he’s projected to have a 64 percent chance of winning there versus Trump’s 36 percent chance.
Overall, as of Tuesday morning, FiveThirtyEight is giving Biden an 89 percent chance of winning the election, while granting a 10 percent chance to Trump to win.
This isn’t to say, however, that Trump can’t win reelection. FiveThirtyEight’s prognostications are favorability odds, which means that they are calculations on the possibilities of either candidate to win or lose. Indeed, in 2016, Trump only had a 28 percent chance of winning the presidential race, but went on to do so with over 300 Electoral College votes going in his favor.
There are other states that Trump has to defend from his win that year that would also spell disaster for him if he cannot retain them. Texas, which was recently placed on the Cook Political Report’s list of “tossup” states, would also spell complete disaster for Trump if Biden were to win it, as would Ohio. But both states, according to FiveThirtyEight, are favored to be won by the incumbent Republican president.
For Nate Silver himself, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, the race will largely depend on just one state: Pennsylvania. If Trump can win there, Biden’s chances shrink considerably, he explained in an interview on ABC News’ “This Week.”
“Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn’t quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options,” Silver said. “But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog.”
With all of that said, the polling generally shows that Biden is most likely to win the race. Many skeptics point out that the polls were off in 2016 when they said that Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump. However, even if a polling error were to happen this year that was equal to the error that happened four years ago, Biden would still win, according to an analysis from The New York Times.